Feature importance estimates that inform users about the degree to which given inputs influence the output of a predictive model are crucial for understanding, validating, and interpreting machine-learning models. However, providing fast and accurate estimates of feature importance for high-dimensional data, and quantifying the uncertainty of such estimates remain open challenges. Here, we frame the task of providing explanations for the decisions of machine-learning models as a causal learning task, and train causal explanation (CXPlain) models that learn to estimate to what degree certain inputs cause outputs in another machine-learning model. CXPlain can, once trained, be used to explain the target model in little time, and enables the quantification of the uncertainty associated with its feature importance estimates via bootstrap ensembling. We present experiments that demonstrate that CXPlain is significantly more accurate and faster than existing model-agnostic methods for estimating feature importance. In addition, we confirm that the uncertainty estimates provided by CXPlain ensembles are strongly correlated with their ability to accurately estimate feature importance on held-out data.

Large language models (LLM) have emerged as a promising avenue for time series forecasting, offering the potential to integrate multimodal data. However, existing LLM-based approaches face notable limitations-such as marginalized role in model architectures, reliance on coarse statistical text prompts, and lack of interpretability. In this work, we introduce Augur, a fully LLM driven time series forecasting framework that exploits LLM causal reasoning to discover and use directed causal associations among covariates. Augur uses a two stage teacher student architecture where a powerful teacher LLM infers a directed causal graph from time series using heuristic search together with pairwise causality testing. A lightweight student agent then refines the graph and fine tune on high confidence causal associations that are encoded as rich textual prompts to perform forecasting. This design improves predictive accuracy while yielding transparent, traceable reasoning about variable interactions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with 26 baselines demonstrate that Augur achieves competitive performance and robust zero-shot generalization.

In a world that constantly changes, it is crucial to understand how those changes impact different systems, such as industrial manufacturing or critical infrastructure. Explaining critical changes, referred to as concept drift in the field of machine learning, is the first step towards enabling targeted interventions to avoid or correct model failures, as well as malfunctions and errors in the physical world. Therefore, in this work, we extend model-based drift explanations towards causal explanations, which increases the actionability of the provided explanations. We evaluate our explanation strategy on a number of use cases, demonstrating the practical usefulness of our framework, which isolates the causally relevant features impacted by concept drift and, thus, allows for targeted intervention.

Abstract--Explainability is increasingly seen as an essential feature of rule-based smart environments. While counterfactual explanations, which describe what could have been done differently to achieve a desired outcome, are a powerful tool in eXplainable AI (XAI), no established methods exist for generating them in these rule-based domains. In this paper, we present the first formalization and implementation of counterfactual explanations tailored to this domain. It is implemented as a plugin that extends an existing explanation engine for smart environments. We conducted a user study (N=17) to evaluate our generated counterfactuals against traditional causal explanations. The results show that user preference is highly contextual: causal explanations are favored for their linguistic simplicity and in time-pressured situations, while counterfactuals are preferred for their actionable content, particularly when a user wants to resolve a problem. Our work contributes a practical framework for a new type of explanation in smart environments and provides empirical evidence to guide the choice of when each explanation type is most effective. Smart environments, such as smart homes, offices, and buildings, integrate sensor-enabled devices to support users in decision-making, monitoring, and managing abnormal situations [1], [2]. The rapid adoption of these environments is fueled by advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), decreasing device costs, and improved system integration [3]-[5]. Rule-based systems are a prevalent approach for implementing automation in smart environments, by executing predefined rules when certain conditions are met [6], [7].

Fraudulent activity in the financial industry costs billions annually. Detecting fraud, therefore, is an essential yet technically challenging task that requires carefully analyzing large volumes of data. While machine learning (ML) approaches seem like a viable solution, applying them successfully is not so easy due to two main challenges: (1) the sparsely labeled data, which makes the training of such approaches challenging (with inherent labeling costs), and (2) lack of explainability for the flagged items posed by the opacity of ML models, that is often required by business regulations. This article proposes SAGE-FIN, a semi-supervised graph neural network (GNN) based approach with Granger causal explanations for Financial Interaction Networks. SAGE-FIN learns to flag fraudulent items based on weakly labeled (or unlabelled) data points. To adhere to regulatory requirements, the flagged items are explained by highlighting related items in the network using Granger causality. We empirically validate the favorable performance of SAGE-FIN on a real-world dataset, Bipartite Edge-And-Node Attributed financial network (Elliptic++), with Granger-causal explanations for the identified fraudulent items without any prior assumption on the network structure.

This study investigates how accurately different evaluation metrics capture the quality of causal explanations in automatically generated diagnostic reports. We compare six metrics: BERTScore, Cosine Similarity, BioSentVec, GPT-White, GPT-Black, and expert qualitative assessment across two input types: observation-based and multiple-choice-based report generation. Two weighting strategies are applied: one reflecting task-specific priorities, and the other assigning equal weights to all metrics. Our results show that GPT-Black demonstrates the strongest discriminative power in identifying logically coherent and clinically valid causal narratives. GPT-White also aligns well with expert evaluations, while similarity-based metrics diverge from clinical reasoning quality. These findings emphasize the impact of metric selection and weighting on evaluation outcomes, supporting the use of LLM-based evaluation for tasks requiring interpretability and causal reasoning.

Structural Causal Explanations (SCEs) can be used to automatically generate explanations in natural language to questions about given data that are grounded in a (possibly learned) causal model. Unfortunately they work for small data only. In turn they are not attractive to offer reasons for events, e.g., tracking causal changes over multiple time steps, or a behavioral component that involves feedback loops through actions of an agent. To this end, we generalize SCEs to a (recursive) formulation of explanation trees to capture the temporal interactions between reasons. We show the benefits of this more general SCE algorithm on synthetic time-series data and a 2D grid game, and further compare it to the base SCE and other existing methods for causal explanations.

Fine-grained sentiment analysis (FGSA) aims to identify sentiment polarity toward specific aspects within a text, enabling more precise opinion mining in domains such as product reviews and social media. However, traditional FGSA approaches often require task-specific architectures and extensive annotated data, limiting their generalization and scalability. To address these challenges, we propose PL-FGSA, a unified prompt learning-based framework implemented using the MindSpore platform, which integrates prompt design with a lightweight TextCNN backbone. Our method reformulates FGSA as a multi-task prompt-augmented generation problem, jointly tackling aspect extraction, sentiment classification, and causal explanation in a unified paradigm. By leveraging prompt-based guidance, PL-FGSA enhances interpretability and achieves strong performance under both full-data and low-resource conditions. Experiments on three benchmark datasets-SST-2, SemEval-2014 Task 4, and MAMS-demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms traditional fine-tuning methods and achieves F1-scores of 0.922, 0.694, and 0.597, respectively. These results validate the effectiveness of prompt-based generalization and highlight the practical value of PL-FGSA for real-world sentiment analysis tasks.

School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 637371 Inferring causal models from observed correlations is a challenging task, crucial to many areas of science. In order to alleviate the effort, it is important to know whether symmetries in the observations correspond to symmetries in the underlying realization. Via an explicit example, we answer this question in the negative. We use a tripartite probability distribution over binary events that is realized by using three (different) independent sources of classical randomness. We prove that even removing the condition that the sources distribute systems described by classical physics, the requirements that i) the sources distribute the same physical systems, ii) these physical systems respect relativistic causality, and iii) the correlations are the observed ones, are incompatible.

Explainability remains a significant problem for AI models in medical imaging, making it challenging for clinicians to trust AI-driven predictions. We introduce 3D ReX, the first causality-based post-hoc explainability tool for 3D models. 3D ReX uses the theory of actual causality to generate responsibility maps which highlight the regions most crucial to the model's decision. We test 3D ReX on a stroke detection model, providing insight into the spatial distribution of features relevant to stroke.